通道建设与区域经济发展的关系研究——以宁波港口经济圈为例

The Relationship between Channel Construction and Regional Economic Development:Taking the Construction of‘Ningbo Port Economic Circle'as an Example

2013年以来,国家陆续提出了"一带一路""长江经济带"等发展战略,其目的就是以运输大通道为纽带,建设新型区域合作模式。浙江省宁波市也提出要充分利用好战略机遇和宁波—舟山港的优势,打造辐射长三角区域、影响华东片区的"宁波港口经济圈"。港口经济圈建设,关键在于它的圈层辐射和带动能力,通道建设发挥的是基础和先行作用。文章以宁波打造港口经济圈过程中的通道建设问题为重点,研究宁波港口通道布局与城市经济发展间的关系。选取港口集装箱量和公路总里程数作为通道建设水平的代表指标,选取城市GDP、社会就业人数、口岸进出口总额作为宁波港口经济圈经济发展的代表性指标,截取宁波市1995—2015年间的21年数据为样本,分别探讨港口集装箱量和公路总里程数与区域GDP、社会就业人数、口岸进出口额间的相互关系。经过ADF检验、协整方程检验、格兰杰因果性检验得出结论:长期来看,集装箱量和公路总里程在一定程度上促进了GDP、就业和口岸进出额的增长,通道建设促进了区域经济发展。

Since 2013,China has put forward ＆quot;The Belt and Road＆quot;and ＆quot;the Yangtze River Eco-nomic Belt＆quot;strategy,the purposes are to transport a large channel as a link,and build a new re-gional cooperation model.Zhejiang and Ningbo government had put forward the strategy of making full use of strategic opportunities and the advantage of Ningbo-Zhoushan port to build the＆quot;Ningbo port economic circle＆quot;which can influence the Yangtze River Delta and East China area.The key of port economic circle construction lies in its circle of radiation and driving ability,chan-nel construction is the basis and the first role.This paper focused on the issue of channel construc-tion in the process of building a port economic circle in Ningbo,and studied the relationship be-tween Ningbo port channel layout and urban economic development.The paper chose the port container volume and the total mileage of the highway as the representative index of the channel construction level,chose the city GDP,the social employment number and the port import and ex-port volume as the representative index of the economic development of the Ningbo port economic circle,and intercepted 21 years data of the city of from 1995 to 2015 for the sample,respectively, to explore the port container and the total mileage of the road and the regional GDP,the number of social employment,the import and export port between the relationship.After the ADF test, covariance equation test and Granger causality test,it concluded：in the long run,the total volume of containers and the total mileage of roads would contribute to the growth of GDP,employment and port entry to a certain extent,the channel construction would promote regional economic de-velopment.