丝绸之路经济带沿线省份旅游效率测算及其驱动因素研究

China Silk Road Economic Belt along the Provincial Tourism Efficiency is Calculated and Driving Factors

本文运用DEA—Malmquist指数方法对丝绸之路带的主要9个省份2006~2015年间的旅游效率变化进行实证分析。以旅游总收入和旅游总人数作为产出指标,以星级酒店的数量、旅行社的数量、景区的数量、旅游相关从业人员作为投入指标,详细分析各个省(区)不同阶段的技术效率、技术进步、纯技术效率、规模技术效率的改变,并基于此进一步分析影响旅游全要素生产率的因素。结果表明:(1)技术进步是9个省(区)旅游生产率增长额的主要驱动力,年均增长率4.6%,技术效率年均增长率-1.6%,技术进步年均增长率6.3%。(2)9个省(区)中只有云南省-2.5%增长,其他省份均正向增长。(3)通过影响因素分析发现,旅游交通、产业结构、旅游人才、经济发展水平对旅游生产率发展均有显著性正向影响。

In this paper,DEA-Malmquist index method is used to analyze the tourism efficiency changes in the nine provinces of the Silk Road from 2006 to 2015.The total tourism income and the total number of tourists as output indicators,the number of star hotels,the number of travel agencies,the number of scenic spots,tourism-related practitioners as input indicators,detailed analysis of the various stages of technical efficiency,technological progress,Pure technical efficiency and scale technical efficiency,and further analyze the factors that affect the total factor productivity of tourism.The results show that：（1）technological progress is the main driving force of tourism productivity growth in China,with an average annual growth rate of 4.6%,an average annual growth rate of technical efficiency of-1.6%and an average annual technological growth rate of 6.3%.（2）Only Yunnan Province grew by-2.5%in 9 provinces and cities,and other provinces are growing positively.（3）Through the analysis of influencing factors,it is found that tourism traffic,industrial structure,tourism talent and economic development have a significant positive impact on the development of tourism productivity.