丝绸之路经济带核心区农产品贸易潜力研究

An Analysis of Agricultural Products Trade Potential at the Core Area of Silk-Road Economic Belt

通过分析丝绸之路经济带核心区国家农产品贸易现状,构建时变随机前沿引力模型测度中国新疆对丝绸之路经济带核心区国家农产品出口贸易潜力,重点从基础设施建设和制度环境两方面考察了农产品贸易非效率影响因素。研究结果表明:第一,新疆与丝绸之路经济带核心区国家农产品贸易发展迅速,新疆农产品出口以蔬菜水果、蔬果制品、混杂的可食用原料及肉类和肉类制品为主。第二,经济规模、人口规模、地理距离、边界等因素影响了中国新疆对丝绸之路经济带核心区国家农产品出口贸易。第三,中国新疆对丝绸之路经济带核心区国家农产品出口潜力呈现出区域化差异,其中对土库曼斯坦出口潜力最大。第四,交通、通讯、互联网等基础设施建设水平的提高以及制度环境的改善均有利于减小农产品出口效率损失。

Through analyzing the present situation of agro-products trade countries at the core area of Silk-Road Economic Belt, this paper constructs a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model to estimate the potential of agricultural products export trade of Xinjiang province in China to the countries at the core area of Silk-Road Economic Belt, with an emphasis on the investigation of the non-efficiency affecting factors on agricultural products trade from the two aspects of infrastructure constructions and institutional environment. The results show that, firstly, the agricultural products trade is developing quickly between Xinjiang and the countries at the core area of Silk-Road Economic Belt, the agricultural products for export in Xinjiang are mainly vegetables, fruits, products of vegetables and fruits, mixed edible raw materials, meats and meat products; secondly, such factors as economic scale, population size, geographical distance, border, etc. can affect the export trade of agricultural products; thirdly, Xinjiang has regional differences in the export potential of agricultural products to the countries at the core area of Silk-Road Economic Belt, among which the potential to Turkmenistan is the greatest; fourthly, the improvement of the construction of infrastructure, like transportation, communications and internet, and the improvement of the institutional environment are all conducive to reducing the loss of export efficiency of agricultural products.