基于相对值分割法的中国工业制成品出口技术结构变化的测算

Measurement of Technological Structure Change of Chinese Manufactured Goods Export based on Relative Value Segmentation

本文参考有序样本聚类分析的最优分割法,通过重新构建,形成了一种新的分类方法——相对值分割法,并基于此对2001—2015年期间中国工业制成品出口技术结构的变化进行测算。研究结果表明:中国工业制成品出口技术结构处于不断优化的过程之中,中低技术类工业制成品出口份额基本维持在50%以上,高技术类工业制成品所占份额较低,维持在3.5%左右,且没有明显的增长趋势。与其他国家相比,中国工业制成品出口技术结构仍待优化。随后,本文对工业制成品出口结构的影响因素进行了简单探究,增加研发支出会提高工业制成品尤其是高技术类工业制成品出口额,而进口国农村和城市发展水平会在一定程度上制约工业制成品出口。

In this paper, according to the optimal ordered sample cluster segmentation method, we reconstruct and form a new classification method--the relative value of the segmentation method, which is based on the change of technology structure of industrial manufactured goods export during 2001-2015 estimates.The results show that： the technical structure of China manufactured goods exports is under the process of continuous optimization, the low tech industrial manufactured goods exports remain at above 50%, and the high tech industry occupies a low share of about 3.5%, and there is no obvious growth trend. Compared with other countries, the technical structure of China＇s manufactured goods export need for optimization. Then, the influence factors of industrial manufactured goods export structure are briefly explored： increase RD spending will increase the export of manufactured goods, especially high tech industrial manufactured goods, while the development level of import city will also constrain the industrial manufactured goods export.