基于层次分析法的舆情风险评估指标体系研究

Risk Evaluation Index System of Public Sentiment Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

舆情风险评估是开展舆情引导的重要环节。在新传播环境下,开展舆情处置需要关口前移,科学把握舆论的生成和演化规律,构建更加科学的舆情风险评估体系。基于层次分析法的舆情风险评估指标体系,将舆情事件性质和责任部门的舆情回应能力列为舆情主体一级指标,将舆情强度、舆情态度、舆情增速列为舆情本体一级指标,将舆情对社会及受众的影响列为舆情客体一级指标,并在此基础上细分了7个二级指标和21个三级指标。研究发现,相关舆情信息的社交媒体扩散度、境外媒体扩散度、境外媒体态度,舆情事件的模糊性、相关性等因素,以及舆情回应机制建设等,是决定舆情风险等级高低的最重要因素。

In the new ecological environment of public sentiment,it becomes required to start managing the public sentiment issues at an early time,recognize scientifically the formation and evolution pattern of public sentiment,and construct risk evaluation index system of public sentiment.Risk evaluation index system of public sentiment is a critical part in the process of managing public sentiment issues.It lays the foundation for guiding public sentiment effectively,and plays a positive role in promoting harmoniously social development.This set of index system can be applied to evaluating and anticipating public sentiment risk for governments and enterprises who can make proper decisions and take reasonable actions.The system is composed of three first-level indicators：subject indicator referring to characteristic of public sentiment and responding ability of the responsible departments;noumenon indicator referring to intensity,attitudes,and growth rate of the public sentiment;object indicator referring to the impacts on society and the public.These three first-level indicators are further subdivided into seven secondary-level indicators and 21 third-level indicators.The study finds out multiple critical factors determining the risk level of public sentiment,which includes diffusion extent of public sentiment information in social media;diffusion extent of the information in overseas media;the attitude of overseas media;fussiness and correlation degree of the public sentiment event;and the responding mechanism to public sentiment.