国际秩序衰落:概念与度量

The Decline of the International Order: Concepts and Measurement

国际秩序是中国学术和政策界分析国际政治的重要概念,判断秩序性质及其兴衰则是中国外交的重要依据。本文认为现有国际秩序研究存在概念内涵过大和系统分析不足的缺陷,与国际体系、国际结构等概念区分度不足,秩序的兴衰也缺少清晰的判断标准有关。有鉴于此,本文试图提出更为紧凑的定义、更为全面的分析框架和更为清晰的判断国际秩序衰落的原则,以使得相关争论更具可交流性。在提出新分析工具的基础上,本文还尝试利用它们来分析当前自由霸权秩序的兴衰,观察其是否受到特朗普主义的致命影响,而结论则是特朗普主义对自由霸权秩序的冲击远不足以带来颠覆性的后果。

International order is an important concept for China's academic and policy circles to analyze international politics,and the judgments as to the nature of the order and its rise and fall are important grounds for China's diplomacy.This paper argues that there are the shortcomings of a too large connotation of the concept and a lack of systematic analysis in the existing studies on international order,the distinction between international order and the concepts such as international system and international structure is not enough,and the rise and fall of the order also lacks clear criteria for evaluation.In view of this,this paper attempts to propose a more compact definition,a more comprehensive analytical framework,and more clear principles to determine the decline of the international order,to make the relevant debates has more in common to communicate.On the basis of proposing new analytical tools,this paper also tries to use them to analyze the rise and fall of the current liberal hegemony order,observe whether it is affected by the fatal influence of Trumpism,and conclude that the impact of Trumpism on the liberal hegemony order is not enough to bring subversive consequences.