近30 a长三角地区港口规模分布演化分析

PORT SCALE DISTRIBUTION IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA IN RECENT THIRTY YEARS

以港口货物吞吐量和港口集装箱吞吐量为指标,运用首位度、位序-规模法则和Kernel密度估计对长三角地区港口规模分布进行研究。结果表明:(1)长三角地区港口等级规模分布由首位分布向位序-规模分布演变;港口货物运输与集装箱运输的首位分布特征演变具有内在一致性,但演变态势、具体时点等方面存在差异;港口体系结构由单核枢纽演变为双核枢纽,并有望形成三足鼎立新格局;(2)长三角地区港口规模分布逐步优化,等级结构不断趋于合理,港口体系基本满足位序-规模法则,但还没有达到理想状态;港口体系呈现分散化发展态势,集装箱技术的应用减缓了港口体系的分散化发展;(3)港口货物吞吐量与港口集装箱吞吐量的核密度曲线由多峰结构分别变为双峰结构和单峰结构,货物运输和集装箱运输均向协调态势发展。

Taking port cargo throughput and container throughput as the research subjects,this paper uses the primacy index,rank-size law and kernel density to examine the port scale distribution in the Yangtze River Delta.Some results are obtained as follows.（ 1） The port scale distribution in the Yangtze River Delta changes from primary distribution to rank-size distribution. The grade distributions of freight transport and container transport are inherently consistent,but there are some differences in evolution trend and period. Yangtze River Delta hub evolves from a single core hub to dual-core hubs,and the triple hub ports maybe formed in the future.（ 2）Yangtze River Delta port scale distribution is gradually optimized,and its hierarchical structure tends to be reasonable. The port system basically satisfies the rank-size distribution,but has not reached the ideal situation.（3） Kernel density curves of cargo throughput and container throughput change from multi peak into double structure and single structure respectively. This means both freight transport and container transport are moving in a coordinated direction.