省直管县改革与县域城镇化的关系研究——基于陕西省县级面板数据的实证分析

Province-Managing-County Reform and County Urbanization: An Empirical Analysis of the Panel Data in Shanxi Province

省直管县财政体制改革被认为是促进县域城镇化发展的重要举措之一,然而现有研究却缺乏相应的实证证据。文章基于陕西83个县(市)2006~2014年的面板数据,采用自然实验的倍差法模型估计,分别从静态和动态的角度实证分析了省直管县改革对县域城镇化发展的影响。研究发现,省直管县改革显著地提高了县域城镇化发展水平,县域城镇化水平因省直管县改革的实施每年约提高2.40个百分点。同时,省直管县改革还进一步促进了县域城镇化增长率的提高,这也将提升县域城镇化的发展增速。文章探讨了省直管县财政体制改革促进县域城镇化的发展逻辑,提供了省直管县改革影响城镇化的经验证据,对进一步推动政府间财政关系的调整提供了启示。

Traditional wisdom suggests that province - managing - county reform is an important way to accelerate county urbanization, but empirical evidence is lacking. This study uses the panel data derived from 63 counties in Shanxi province from 2006 to 2014 to analyze the effects of province - managing - county reform based on the difference - in - difference method. From both static and dynamic perspectives, we empirically es- timate the influence of intergovernmental fiscal relations on county urbanization. We found that province - man- aging - county reform can accelerate the development of county urbanization. Meanwhile, the study discusses the developmental logic of how province - managing - county reform promotes county urbanization with the empirical evidence on this issue, and gives some implications about how to adjust intergovernmental fiscal relations during reform.