中国省际资本回报率的估算及不平等分解：1995～2015

An Estimation and Inequality Decomposition of China's Provincial Capital Return: 1995-2015

文章利用公式法,在考虑存货、生产税和企业所得税的基础上,重新估算了我国及各省1995~2015年的资本回报率。首先,对全国资本回报率估算结果分析表明:第一,存货、生产税和企业所得税对全国资本回报率均有明显的影响;第二,2008年金融危机以后中国资本回报率出现了快速下跌的现象;第三,导致全国税前资本回报率变化差异的主要因素依次为产出价格变动、资本价格变动、资本收入份额变动。其次,对省际资本回报率的不平等分解结果表明:第一,从2009年开始省际资本回报率差异明显拉大,中部地区资本回报率差异上升较快;第二,省际资本回报率差异主要是区域内部差异而非区域间差异作用的结果。

Capital return is a vital macroeconomic variable. However, different scholars have different estimations for China＇s capital return. Taking stock, production tax and corporate income tax into consideration, this article estimates China＇s provincial capital return during 1995 and 2015 with the formula method. First, results indicate： （1） Stock, production tax and corporate income tax have considerable effect on China＇s capital return ; （ 2 ） Overall, after the 2008 global financial crisis, China＇s capital return declined faster than before ; （ 3 ） On the whole, main factors that led to the change of China＇s capital return include changes in output prices, capital prices and capital income shares. Second, results from the inequality decomposition of China＇s provincial capital return indicate ： （ 1 ） Starting in 2009, the disparity in China＇s provincial capital return has been increasing, especially in the central region; （2） the disparity is mainly caused by the disparity in regions, not between them.