人民币汇率制度的选择--基于博弈论角度的损失函数

Choices of RMB Exchange Rate Regime--Based on Welfare Loss Function in Aspect of Game Theory

随着经济全球化的发展和各国间贸易往来的逐渐加深,汇率制度安排对于国内经济发展和国际间贸易收益都将发挥日益重要的作用。文章从博弈论角度出发,建立计量经济模型,分别以微观经济和宏观经济两个视角,建立厂商和政府的损失方程,并基于福利损失函数,以福利最大化为主要目标,构建汇率制度选择模型,进而对我国短期及中长期的汇率制度选择进行判定。文章由此得出研究结论:以当前中国的经济发展状况来看,短期内,为了维护国内金融市场的安全稳定和经济的平稳发展,应维持当前所参考的货币篮子的管理浮动的汇率制度;而随着我国金融市场监管的完善和金融市场的成熟,长期来看,更加灵活的汇率制度引起的政府损失低于相对固定汇率制度下政府的损失,我国汇率制度应该变得更加灵活。

With the development of economic globalization and the deepening of trade between countries, exchange rate regime plays an important role for countries' domestic economy and trade business. This paper focus on the exchange rate regime choices in short and long term by establishing macro government and micro manufacturer's loss function, respectively, in aspect of game theory and maximum welfare standard. The result shows that under the current economic situation of China, in the short term, the current managed floating exchange rate regime with reference of currency basket should maintain to keep the stability of the domestic financial market and the stable development of the economy. In the long term, when China's financial market matures and the financial supervision regulation develops, we should shift to a more flexible exchange rate system because the government has less welfare loss below a more flexible exchange rate system.