中国沿岸验潮站潮汐调和常数的置信度确定

Hypothesis Test of Harmonic Constants for Long Term Tidal Stations Along the Coast of China

对中国沿岸七个具有代表性的长期验潮站按照年观测序列进行了调和分析结果的精度统计,并根据间接平差的条件对分潮振幅进行了t分布检验,还对具有缺测数据的年观测资料得来的主要分潮调和常数进行了置信度确定。结果表明,由完整年观测资料得来的分潮振幅具有毫米级精度。根据α=0.1进行t检验后,由年观测序列得来的122个分潮有近一半的分潮对实际计算水位高度没有较大作用。由具有缺测数据的年观测资料得来的长周期分潮振幅的置信度下降明显。

For seven typical long term tidal stations along the coast of China,the accuracy evaluations are performed based on statistics of the analyzed results series from yearly observations. The T-distribution of the tidal amplitudes is tested according to the conditions of indirect adjustment method. The confidence level of the harmonic constants from yearly observations with the missing data is determined. The statistics shows that the harmonic constants from the complete year observation data can reach mm accuracy level. According to the T-test,nearly half of the harmonic constants from the yearly observation do not have a significant effect on the actual calculated water level. The confidence level of the amplitude of long period constituents from yearly observations with the missing data is significantly reduced.