产业结构升级对养老保险降费空间影响效应研究

Research on Effects of Industrial Structure's Upgrading on Reducing Pension Contribution's Space

养老保险降费率是供给侧结构改革"三降一补"的重要内容,产业结构升级是影响养老保险降费空间的宏观条件。实证检验不同产业结构升级方式对养老保险降费空间的影响,研究发现:粗放式产业结构升级导致就业和收入稳定性下降,养老保险现实缴费率低于理论缴费率,养老保险降费空间下降;粗放式产业结构升级对养老保险降费空间的负向影响是通过中介效应实现的,具体包括缴费挤出效应和缴费消减效应;在产业结构升级过程中实现产业层次内部技术结构优化,能够降低粗放式产业结构升级对养老保险缴费负向影响,随着产业结构升级合理化程度提升,养老保险降费空间也随之增加;同时,产业结构升级对养老保险降费空间的影响程度以及产业层次内部技术结构优化补偿养老保险降费空间下降水平均存在地区差异,东部地区比中西部地区更加显著。

Lowering the rate of pension insurance is an important part of the reform of the supply side—"three down and one fill",and the upgrading of industrial structure is a macro factor affecting pension contribution's deviation.The paper analyzes the effects of different industrial structure upgrading on pension contribution's deviation.The paper found that:extensive upgrading of industrial structure leads to lower employment and income stability,the actual contribution rate of endowment insurance is lower than the theoretical rate of payment,and pension insurance dropping in space;negative influence of industrial structure upgrading to pension contribution is realized by mediating effect,including pension contribution extrusion effect and pension contribution reduction effect;in the realization of the internal structure of technology to optimize the industrial level in the process of upgrading the industrial structure,the negative impacts of the extensive upgrading of the industrial structure on the old-age insurance payment are reduced;with the upgrading of the industrial structure rationalization,the level of old-age insurance fee reduction space also increases.At the same time,the deviation effect of extensive industrial structure upgrading and the incentive contribution effect of the optimization of internal industrial technology structure vary in different regions,and the eastern region is more significant than the central and western regions.