基于系统动力学的浙江湖州地区制造与物流企业低碳联动研究

Study on Low-carbon Linkage between Manufacturing and Logistics Industries in Huzhou,Zhejiang Based on System Dynamics

浙江湖州地区制造与物流企业低碳联动是一个巨型的复杂系统,通过建立低碳联动的系统动力学模型,分析低碳模式与生态、经济、社会之间的关系。结合湖州地区两业联动的各影响因素,并从增加政府低碳投入、改变政府经济措施、调整技术指标等三方面对系统进行模拟仿真,并对仿真结果进行评价。针对仿真结果,提出湖州地区两业低碳联动的若干建议,包括加大政府投入、调整奖惩政策、打通联动通道、淘汰落后产能等,从而实现湖州地区的节能减排目标。

In this paper, through building the system dynamic model of the low-carbon linkage of the manufacturing and logistics industries in Huzhou, Zhejiang, we analyzed the relationship between the low-carbon model with the ecology, economy and society of the region; then in connection with the various influence factors in the linkage of the two industries in Huzhou, we simulated the system on the aspects of government investment, governmental economic measures, and technical index adjustment, etc.; and in view of the result of the simulation, we proposed the measures to help realize the energy-saving and emissions-reduction target of the Huzhou region.