系统性金融风险:测度与时空格局演化分析

Systemic Financial Risk:Measurement and Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Pattern Evolution

基于Markov链模型和ESDA探索性空间数据分析技术,测度2003-2014年中国31个省域系统性金融风险水平,并深入解析中国系统性金融风险的时空格局演化特征。研究表明:时空分异特征方面,中国各省域系统性金融风险水平总体上呈先上升后下降的趋势,并且东西部地区风险较高,中部地区风险较低;风险分布演进方面,高水平、中低水平、低水平3个风险类型的省域存在明显的俱乐部趋同现象,系统性金融风险长期分布格局趋于均衡,略向低风险水平倾斜;时空格局演化方面,整体上中国系统性金融风险水平在不同省域间具有显著的溢出效应,局部格局上"高-高"溢出效应区集中在东部沿海和西部边境省域。

Based on the Markov chain model and ESDA exploratory spatial data analysis technology,the systemic financial risk level of each province in 2003 to 2014 is analyzed and the characteristics of temporal and spatial pattern evolution of systemic financial risk in mainlad China are analyzed.The results show that：The systemic financial risk level of each province in mainlad China is generally on the rise and then decline,and the risk is higher in the East and the west,and lower in the central region;There are obvious club convergence phenomenon in 3 provinces of high level,medium-low level and low level,and the long-term distribution pattern of systemic financial risk tends to be balanced,which is inclined to the low risk level;On the whole,the level of systemic financial risk in China has significant spillover effects in different provinces,and the ＂ high-high＂ spillover effect in the local pattern is concentrated in the eastern coastal and western border provinces.