垂直专业化分工抑制了我国的全要素生产率吗?——来自省级面板数据的证据

Does Vertical Specialization Restrain China′s TFP?——Evidence from Provincial Panel Data

本文在省级面板数据的基础上,采用Ⅳ估计和GMM估计等方法,实证研究了垂直专业化分工对全要素生产率的影响,研究发现:(1)分工对全要素生产率的直接效应为负,其促进效应是靠与人力资本的交互作用来体现,而与资本存量的交互作用则可能通过"挤出效应"、资源错配等方式抑制了生产率的提升;(2)东部地区技术外溢水平最高,但人力资本回流会使技术外溢增长受限,进而抑制生产率的提升,西部地区则更可能出现"资源诅咒",但人力资本的改善有助于解决该问题,中部地区技术外溢与"挤出效应"可能相互抵消,进而导致分工对生产率的影响并不显著;(3)东部地区较高的分工水平和快速的资本积累,通过"挤出效应"和资源错配加剧等途径,抑制了生产率的提升,而这点在中、西部地区并不显著。

Based on the provincial panel data, this paper empirically studies the impact of vertical specialization on total factor productivity （TFP） by using the method of IV estimation and GMM estimation, we find that： （1） the direct effect of vertical specialization r on TFP is negative, the promotion effect is mainly achieved by the interaction with human capital, while the interaction with the capital stock may restrain the productivity increase through ＂crowding out effect＂ and the misallocation of resources; （2） The level of technology spillover is the highest in the eastem region, however the human capital backflow will inhibit the promotion of productivity by limiting the growth of technology spillover, the resource curse is more likely to appear in the west, while the improvement of human capital can help solve the problem, the technology spillover and crowding out effect may cancel each other in the central part of China, and then the influence of vertical specialization on TFP is not significant; （3） the higher level of vertical specialization and rapid accumulation of capital in the eastern region suppressed the increase of TFP by the ＂crowding out effect＂ and the misallocation of resources, however it is not significant in the central and Western regions. Keywords： vertical specialization; total factor productivity; processing trade; crowding out effect