中国经济社会发展与生育水平变动关系再探索

Re-examining Chinas Provincial Socioeconomic Development and Fertility Change

文章利用1982、1990、2000、2010年4次中国人口普查计算数据和学者调整数据,考察中国各省、自治区、直辖市(本文简称各省(区、市))TFR和相应年份HDI之间的关系,发现各省(区、市)HDI迅速提高、地区差异不断缩小,TFR不断下降、地区差异也不断缩小,HDI与TFR呈现负向关系,且这种经济社会发展对生育水平的抑制作用在逐渐降低。进一步将各省(区、市)按生育政策类型划分后,各类地区两变量依然呈负相关,并未出现尾部上翘或呈"反J型",尽管上海、北京、天津市在2010年的HDI已经达到0.788以上的极高人类发展水平。中国目前尚未达到类似西方部分发达国家生育水平随经济社会发展自动回升的阶段。如果政策不调整,全国各省(区、市)生育水平随经济社会发展还会继续下降,尚未触底,及时放开政策能有效抑制TFR进一步下降。

This study explores the relationship between China＇s provincial total fertility rate（TFR）cal- culated from census data and adjusted by scholars in 1982,1990,2000 and 20]0 and the provincial hu- man development index （HDI）. China experienced rapid increase in the HDI and continuous decrease in the TFR at all provinces and shrinking regional disparities in both of them. The two variables are nega- tively correlated while the inhibition effect of HDI on TFR is gradually decreased. After dividing regions by different policy types,we find that the two still have negative correlation and without Showing a J-shape relation in different category of regions, although Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin have reached the very high human development level which exceeds O. 788 in 2010. Unlike some western developed coun- tries , China＇s fertility level does not turn to rise with the socioeconomic development. Without adjusting fertility policy,the fertility level of all the provinces would continue declining with the socioeconomic de- velopment. A timely releasing of fertility policy can effectively restrain further decline of TFR.