基于个人投资视角反观房地产市场的宏观调控

Review macro-control of the real estate market based on the view of personal investment

对我国房地产市场进行实证分析,发现该市场具有分形特征以及房价与租金存在线性关系.在此前提下,应用实物期权理论对投资收益进行预估,建立个人房地产投资租转售决策分析模型.运用停时与数值模拟等方法求解,得到投资者执行租转售决策时的房价可行区间.继而定性分析房地产市场基本要素对房价可行区间产生的影响,得出了相关结论.最后利用模型结论对北京二手住宅房地产市场进行阶段性研究,反向剖析近年来政府对房地产市场所做的系列宏观调控政策.

According to empirical analysis to Chinese real estate market, this paper finds that the market has fraetal feature and exists a kind of linear relation between house prices and rent. Under the premise of it, we use the real option theory to estimate inves- ting earnings, then build the renting selling conversion model and solve model by the stopping time and numerical simulation method, get the prices feasible sector of inves- tors making renting-selling conversion decision. By analysing qualitatively the influence of Hurst exponent, growth rate of house prices, volatility, investment horizon and risk- free interest rate to feasible section of house prices, we draw a conclusion. In the end, this paper utilizes the conclusion to make periodic research to the market of second-hand residential real estate in Beijing and dissects a series of macro-control policy that the government made for the real estate market reversely .