人口老龄化对技术创新的影响机制分析——基于DFA方法的创新评价和动态面板模型

The Influence of Population Aging on Technological Innovation:Based on Innovation Evaluation Using Dynamic Factor Analysis and Dynamic GMM Model

在老龄化程度加深以及我国经济对技术创新日渐倚重的双重背景下,研究人口老龄化如何影响我国的技术创新具有重要意义。文章基于动态因子模型,从创新投入、创新产出、创新绩效、协同创新能力、创新环境五个方面测算了我国1990–2014年29个省份的技术创新能力,并构建了新的技术创新综合能力指数。在此基础上,运用动态面板模型,文章发现人口老龄化对技术创新产生两种对立效应:一方面,人口老龄化通过提高科研工作者的劳动效率对技术创新产生积极影响,具有"劳动效率正效应";另一方面,人口老龄化通过降低人力资本投资水平以及加重老龄负担、挤占创新资源对技术创新产生消极影响,具有"人力资本负效应"和"老龄负担负效应"。这一研究对如何应对我国人口老龄化的挑战具有实践意义和政策参考。

In the double background of population aging and China＇s economy increasingly driven by technological innovation,the investigation into the effect of population aging on technological innovation is of great importance.This paper evaluates three influence mechanisms of population aging on technological innovation,namely ＂human capital mechanism＂,＂labor productivity mechanism＂ and ＂the elderly burden mechanism＂.Using dynamic factor analysis model,we choose multiple indicators in five aspects-innovation input,innovation output,innovation efficiency,synergy innovation and innovation environment.Then we get a new comprehensive index of technological innovation concerning 29 provinces from 1990 to 2014 and use it as a new indicator of innovation capacity.Using dynamic GMM model,we prove that population aging has two opposite effects on technological innovation：on one hand,population aging has positive effect on technological innovation by improving researchers＇ labor efficiency,having the positive ＂labor productivity effect＂;on the other hand,population aging has negative effect on technological innovation by reducing the level of human capital,aggravating the pension burden and squeezing out innovation input,having negative ＂human capital＂ and ＂elderly burden＂ effects.Our work contributes to the present research by creating a new innovation indicator and analyzing the effect of population aging on technological innovation,and has policy implications for dealing with the challenge of population aging.