南北格局与和平崛起：二十国集团综合国力研究

A New South-North Setup and China's Peaceful Rise:A Study on the Dynamic Change of G20 Countries' Comprehensive National Strength

本文分析二十国集团2000~2015年期间综合国力的动态变化,发现世界经济呈现南方崛起、北方衰落新格局,中国、印度、印度尼西亚为主要崛起国,欧盟、美国、日本为主要衰落国(或地区)。这种南升北降新格局可以从国家发展生命周期理论和国家创新竞争视角得到解释,发达国家"因发达而老化",缺少创新意愿和能力,必然走向衰退。中国经过长期努力,和平崛起基础不断夯实,一方面成为主要大国的利益攸关方,是二十国集团超过一半以上国家的第一大贸易伙伴,另一方面已经建立起广泛的大国伙伴关系,这是和平崛起的重要战略资产。尤其是党的十八大以来,以习近平同志为核心的党中央带头主动走出去,积极与主要大国领导人高层互动,开创中国特色大国外交新局面,为和平崛起创造出前所未有的机遇。中国对南方国家的引领作用将更加凸显,并将更多承担南北桥梁关键作用,进一步走向世界舞台中心。

The authors try to analyze G20’s major countries’dynamic change regarding their comprehensive national strength from 2000 to 2015.There is a new global economic setup of a rising South and a declining North,where China,India,and Indonesia leads the South and the EU,the US and Japan are the main declining countries(or regions)of the North.Becoming the number one trade partner with over half of the G20 countries,China lays a favorable groundwork for its peaceful rise.Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,the Party leadership led by President Xi Jinping has been actively visiting the world’s important countries,creating an unprecedented opening of an inter-nation harmony for China’s peaceful rise.The future global environment will offer more opportunities than challenges for China’s peaceful rise.