利率双轨制与货币政策传导效率:理论阐释和实证检验

Interest Rate Double Track System and Monetary Policy Transmission Efficiency:Theoretical Exposition and Empirical Test

基准存贷款利率决定的信贷利率和市场化的货币、债券市场利率并存的利率双轨制是理解中国货币政策传导机制的关键。本文从理论层面阐释了利率双轨制特征及其对货币政策传导效率的影响机制,基本结论如下:利率双轨制造成资金需求层面软预算约束主体和民营企业融资的"双重双轨制","扭曲"了资金配置效率;价格信号的"扭曲"需要数量型工具予以纠正,市场化的数量型工具既要发挥调节流动性的功能,又承担了引导市场利率的任务;货币总量与经济指标的关联性下降导致数量型工具的调控效果弱化,价格型调控框架尚未形成,降低了传导效率。实证结果显示,计划轨利率在货币政策调控中仍占据主导地位,利率市场化可以提高货币政策调控的有效性。本文认为,利率市场化改革要打破软预算约束体制,形成以市场化基准利率为基础的价格型调控框架。

The combination of the credit rate determined by the benchmark deposit and lending rate and the coexist of mar- ket-oriented currency and bond market interest rates form the interest rate double track system. Dual-track system of interest rate is the key to understand China＇s monetary policy transmission mechanism. This paper explains the characteristics of interest rate double track system and its influence on the efficiency of monetary policy transmission from the theoretical level, the basic conclusions are as follows： Interest rate double track system causes＂double dual system＂of soft budget constraint subject in capi- tal demand level and private enterprise financing, this＂distorts＂the capital allocation efficiency; The＂twist＇of the price signal re- quires a quantitative tool to correct, the market-oriented quantitative tools not only play the role of adjusting liquidity, but also undertake the function of leading market interest rates; The decline of the correlation between the monetary aggregates and the economic indicators leads to the weakening of the control effect of the quantitative tools, at the same time, price framework has not yet formed, thus results in reducing the transmission efficiency.The empirical results show that the planned interest rate is still dominating the monetary policy regulation, interest rate marketization can improve the effectiveness of monetary policy.This paper points out that, in the process of interest rate marketization, we should break the soft budget constraint system, form a price regulation framework on the basis of the market-based benchmark interest rates.