美国腐败指数曲线的波动及原因

An Exploration into the Causes of the Fluctuations in American Corruption Index Curve

美国腐败指数曲线显示,19世纪中后期,美国曾出现三个腐败高发期;20世纪初出现一个低谷期,其后尽管有小幅上扬,但未再出现高发期;近几十年以来,美国腐败指数曲线一直在一个较低值附近小幅波动。从宏观上来看,美国的腐败指数曲线的整体变化表现为从大幅波动到小幅波动,这种波动类似一种钟摆运动且具有多种特征,这一曲线的根本摆动原因是现代化加剧腐败、现代性遏制腐败,具体原因则可归入经济发展程度高低、软政府或强政府状态的存在、民主制度完善程度高低和反腐制度化水平高低这几大层面。根据这一曲线的变化规律可以推导出美国腐败与反腐败情况的演变趋向。

The corruption index curve in the United States reveals three peaks of corruption in mid-and late 19 th century. A period of low ebb ensued in the early 20 th century. Although there was a slight rise thereafter,there have ever since not seen high tides. In recent decades,American corruption index curve has fluctuated within a narrow range of generally low value. From a macro-point of view,the American corruption index curve has fluctuated from within a wide range to a narrow one,similar to the pendulum movements of a clock. Such movements also display various features. The fundamental reason for the emergence of this curve is that the modernization intensifies corruption and the modernity restrains corruption. More specifically,it can be attributed to the following factors: the high/low economic development level,weak/strong government,level of democracy and maturity of anti-corruption institution. The study of this curve is indicative of the evolution trend of corruption and anti-corruption in the United States.