阿富汗安全治理:是否可以摆脱困境?

The Security Governance in Afghanistan:Can Afghanistan Extricate Itself from Security Dilemma?

自2001年底美国摧毁阿富汗塔利班政权并赶走"基地"组织后,阿富汗进入战后重建时期。然而,自2005年以来,阿富汗安全局势日益恶化,冲突频繁发生。阿富汗安全形势持续恶化,威胁主要来自重组后的阿富汗塔利班,其次是近些年"伊斯兰国"阿富汗分支的渗透和扩张。在阿富汗,美国的政策由重点反恐转向撤军,美国主导下的阿富汗战后重建取得了一些进展,实现了阿富汗的政治重建。但是,政府政治治理能力不高、军队战斗力不强、经济状况持续恶化等问题,是造成阿富汗安全困境的最主要因素。南亚地缘关系复杂,印度、阿富汗、巴基斯坦之间矛盾交织,地区国家与美国政策出现的偏差也增加了阿富汗安全治理的难度。当下,特朗普政府推出了应对阿富汗安全问题的新战略,从实现路径看,重军事手段,轻国家重建;从倚重的地区伙伴看,重印度,轻巴基斯坦。这可能使阿富汗安全治理前景出现更多的不确定性,未来发展不容乐观。

Afghanistan has stepped into a period of post - war rebuilding since the U. S. had toppled the Taliban regime and expelled al - Qaeda in Afghanistan at the end of 2001. However, the security situation in Afghanistan has increasingly worsened, since 2005. The regrouped Taliban has posed the major threat to Afghan security, and the penetration of the ISIS with its branch in Afghanistan is another threat source. At present, the strategic emphasis of the U. S. in Afghanistan has shifted from the anti -terrorism to the troop withdrawal. Despite the fact that some progress for the U.S. - led country rebuilding has been made in Afghanis serious problems have constituted the most important factors leading to tan, lots of the current security dilemma in this country, such as the low ability of the political governance, the low combat effectiveness of the security forces, and the declining situation of the economy. In addition, the complicated geopolitical relations in Central and South Asian region, and the policy deviations between regional countries and the U. S. , have further increased the difficulty in resolving the security issue in Afghanistan. Nowadays, the Trump Administration has formulated a new strategy for Afghanistan , with more attention to an approach of military forces than country rebuilding, and attaching more importance to the partnership of India than to that of Pakistan. Accordingly, there might be more uncertainties in the prospect of the security governance in Afghanistan.