50年来甘肃省气温变化趋势分析

Analysis of Temperature Change in Past 50 Years,Gansu Province

首先对甘肃省及周边43个国家级气象台站1962-2011年的月平均气温进行均值处理,得到12个月份的站点月均气温;利用AUNSPLIN进行插值处理,生成1-12月的月平均气温空间分布图;并进一步利用ArcGIS10.0的空间分析工具,得到50年来甘肃省四季代表月份:春季(4月)、夏季(7月)、秋季(10月)、冬季(1月)和全年的平均温度变化的空间分布图,并进行趋势特征分析.结果如下:(1)甘肃省1月平均温度最低,达到-9.18℃,7月平均温度最高,达到17.62℃.(2)在不同区域,平均温度变化的趋势呈现出明显的季节性,其中夏季(0.39℃/10a)>春季(0.35℃/10a)>秋季(0.22℃/10a)>冬季(0.19℃/10a);(3)从近50年温度倾向率来看,甘肃(0.34℃/10a)>全国(0.23℃/10a),略小于青藏高原(0.37℃/10a).总体来看,近50年甘肃省的气候变化整体呈现出变暖的趋势.

The terrain is complicated,and the meteorological stations are scare,which limit research of climate change in Gansu province.This article processes data of monthly temperature from 43 state meteorological stations in and around Gansu province during 1962-2011,and gets that of monthly temperature from January to December in stations respectively.Using AUNSPLIN interpolation processing,we generated spatial distribution maps of monthly temperature during January to December.With ArcGIS 10.0 spatial analysis tools,we got spatial distribution tendency of spring（April）,summer（July）fall（October）,winter（January）and annual average temperature change in past 50 years in Gansu province,and made a trend analysis further.The results are as follows：（1）The lowest monthly temperature reaches -9.18 ℃in January,and the highest is 17.62 ℃in July.（2）The tendency of average temperature change presents obvious seasonal characteristics,summer（0.39 ℃/10 a）〉spring（0.35 ℃/10 a） 〉autumn（0.22 ℃/10 a） 〉winter（0.19 ℃/10 a）in different regions.（3）From the point of temperature tendency rate,it indicates that：Gansu（0.34 ℃/10 a）is higher than average of all country（0.23℃/10 a）,but lower than Qinghai-Tibet Plateau（0.37 ℃/10 a）.As a whole,Gansu province presents the warming trend in past 50 years.