中国货币政策框架转型:分歧与共识

Opinions on China's Monetary Policy Transformation:Differences and Consensus

受世界经济长周期变化的影响,中国经济进入增长调整期,传统货币政策框架对核心经济目标的调控效果难以显现,新型货币政策框架呼之欲出。至今,关于中国是否已经形成新型货币政策框架以及新型货币政策框架的具体内容,仍然缺乏系统性研究。本文通过问卷调查方法对此问题进行深入分析。我们通过调研获得业界、学界和央行三组具有代表性的群体对中国新型货币政策框架的判断,以期获得各界对新型货币政策框架转型的分歧与共识。基于调研问卷结果的统计分析表明,虽然在部分问题上存在分歧,但各界基本形成了对货币政策目标、工具和央行独立性等方面的新型货币政策框架的共识。同时,央行也按照这一共识方向,加入"金融稳定"目标,推进以"央行沟通"政策为代表的包括"宏观审慎政策"、"信贷政策"、"贷款便利政策"以及"回购交易"等多种创新型货币政策工具的配合操作。新型货币政策框架有利于政策调控的前瞻性、灵活性和有效性。

With the global economic restructuring,China faces the transformation of her monetary policy framework.This article explores the judgement and expectation of the industrial world,academic researchers,and central bank officials on China's new monetary policy framework. The analysis of surveyresults shows that,although the people from various background have differences in their opinions,there is a basic consensus on the targets,tools,and independence of the new monetary policy framework. At the same time,in accordance with the direction of this consensus,PBOC adopts the financial stability goal and central bank communication policy and promotes a series of new monetary policy tools including macroprudential management,convenient loan policy,and repo operation. The new monetary policy framework is conducive to the forward-looking,flexible and effective macroeconomic management.