能源—环境—就业三重约束下的京津冀产业结构优化

Industrial structure optimization of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei under the triple restriction of energy, environment and employment

区域的产业结构优化是人文—经济地理学的经典问题,也是政府宏观调控经济与资源环境协调发展的重要抓手,更是经济新常态下中国新型城镇化面临的现实问题。以京津冀城市群为案例区,采用投入产出分析,构建能源—环境—就业三重约束下的线性规划模型,纳入产业间要素流动,系统分析京津冀地区的产业结构整体优度及优化路径。研究表明:(1)在能源约束情景与综合约束情景下,天津市和河北省的能源约束相对于环境约束和就业约束更加严格。(2)在就业约束情景方案中,北京产业结构优化的方向为高端服务业,天津市应主要发展现代工业,河北省则应聚焦于发展现代工业和传统服务业。(3)在环境约束情景方案中,三地产业结构的调整应立足于降低高污染高排放的产业。(4)综合考虑以上约束条件的情景模拟,京津冀三地应根据各地经济发展优势,统筹目前各地的产业发展目标。北京应重点发展高端服务业、高新技术产业,同时转移不适宜本地发展的第一、第二产业;天津应坚持第二、第三产业并重,寻求自身优势产业;河北应改善高污染、高能耗的传统工业,完善配套的生产性服务业。

The optimization of regional industrial structure is a classic topic for humaneconomic geography, also a heated issue faced in the context of Chinese new-type urbanization,which plays a key role for the Chinese regional balanced development. In this paper, with Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as the study area, using multi regional input-output method, we constructed a linear programming model to systematically analyze the overall optimal industrial structure and development path in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under three constraints of energy-environment-employment, which included the multi regional flow factors. The results showed that（1） the results of the energy and environment constraint scenarios for Tianjin and Hebei share similar trends, and that energy consumptions in Tianjin city and Hebei province will cost too much.（2） In the scenario of employment constraint,Beijing should reduce the proportion of heavy industry; develop light industry, information industry, as well as financial service industry. Tianjin should focus mainly on modern industries, while Hebei province should mainly combine the development of modern industry and traditional service industry.（3） The industrial structure adjustment of the three case studies in the environmental restraint scenario is mainly turning to reduce the proportion of industries characterized by high pollution and high emissions.（4） Considering the above constraints of all scenarios, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei should cooperate on the systematical planning of industrial development, taking advantages of their resouces, human capitals, and developmental bases respectively. Beijing should put the tertiary industry as the leading economic pillar,focusing mainly on the development of high-end service industry, high-tech industry, as well as transferring the primary and secondary industries to Tianjin and Hebei. Tianjin should balance the manufacturing and service industries, and seek its own advantage industry. Hebei should upgrade the high pollution and high energy consumption industry, develop service industries and undertake the transferring of industries from Beijing and Tianjin.