中国参与全球气候治理的影响分析

Analysis of the impact of China's participation in global climate governance

全球气候治理已经得到越来越多国家和政府认可。中国政府承诺在2030年左右达到CO_2排放峰值,并争取尽早达峰,积极参与全球气候治理。与此同时,为了解决国内日益严重的大气污染,中央及地方政府实施了大气污染治理政策。由于CO_2排放和大气污染物的同源性,使得政府可以采取协同治理的政策,同时减少CO_2排放和控制大气污染。协同治理可以避免政策制定中可能出现的不一致,提高政策实施的成本有效性。基于EMRICES模型,模拟中国征收碳税和硫税对世界各经济体的影响,并分析中国参与全球气候治理的碳峰值变化。结果发现:基准情景下,中国的碳排放量高峰值为3695.30 Mt C,高峰值出现在2033年。中国征收碳税,其他国家(地区)不收税的情景下,中国的碳排放量高峰为3480.30 Mt C,出现在2032年。中国征收硫税,其他国家(地区)不收税的情景下,中国的碳排放量高峰为3307.90 Mt C,出现在2031年。中国同时征收碳税和硫税,其他国家(地区)不收税的情景下,中国的碳排放量高峰为3125.10 Mt C,出现在2030年,比基准情景提前了3年,能够完成2030年左右达到碳峰值的目标,但是中国需承受较大的经济损失。

The Paris Agreement established an institutional framework of the global response to climate change after 2020, which has greatly promoted the global cooperation in tackling climate change. Global climate governance has been more and more recognized by state and government. Chinese government has pledged to reach CO_2 emissions peak by 2030, and strives to reach the peak as soon as possible, and actively participates in the global climate governance. As the same time, the central and local governments have implemented air pollution control policies in order to solve the increasingly serious air pollution in China. Due to the homology of carbon dioxide emissions and air pollutants, for instance, fossil fuel combustion, the government can adopt collaborative governance policy to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and control air pollution simultaneously. Collaborative governance can avoid inconsistencies in policy making and improve the effectiveness of policy implementation. In the background of world economy integration, a country＇s climate governance policy will have an impact on the rest of the world economy, thereby affecting countries＇ investment for climate change mitigation, and ultimately affect the global cumulative welfare. In this paper, based on EMRICES model, we simulated the effects of carbon tax and sulfur tax of China on the world economy, and analyzed the change of carbon peak value after China＇s participation in global governance of climate. It was found that, under the baseline scenario, China＇s carbon emissions peak is 3695.30 Mt C, which will appear in 2033. Under China＇s carbon tax scenario, when other economies do not levy carbon tax, China＇s carbon emissions peak is 3480.30 Mt C, which will appear in 2032. Under China＇s sulfur tax scenario, when other economies do not levy sulfur tax, China＇s carbon emissions peak is 3307. 90 Mt C, which will appear in 2031. When China levies tax carbon and sulfur tax simultaneously, and other economies do not levy tax,China＇s carbon emissions peak is 3125.10 Mt C, will appear in 2030, three years earlier than the baseline scenario, which reflects that China can complete the target of reaching carbon peak around 2030, but China may suffer from greater economic losses.