近期中国鸡蛋市场形势及展望

China's Egg Market in Recent Years and Its Prospect

在"H7N9"流感疫情和季节性消费淡季的双重影响下,2016年9月至2017年5月蛋价8个月持续下跌,零售价从9.76元/kg跌至6.95元/kg,累计下跌28.8%,创近10年新低;蛋鸡养殖效益也逐渐下降并处于亏损状态,亏损幅度达近5年最大,蛋鸡存栏量逐渐下降。6月开始,在蛋鸡存栏下降叠加高温天气抑制蛋鸡生产性能的影响下,鸡蛋供给减少,蛋价快速上涨,主产省批发价1个月内上涨了40.5%,创单周30.3%的历史最高增幅。展望未来,随着前期补栏蛋雏鸡以及青年鸡进入产蛋期,蛋鸡存栏将有所增加,加之高温对蛋鸡产能的影响消除,预计鸡蛋市场供给将稳中有增;而随着鸡蛋消费节日效应的消退,4季度鸡蛋消费呈现稳中回落态势,鸡蛋价格将进入震荡下行通道,但整体跌幅有限;蛋鸡养殖将继续保持盈利,盈利区间有所收窄。建议各生产经营主体一是完善养殖风险防控机制,降低蛋鸡行业风险;二是完善禽蛋监测预警机制,引导市场决策;三是提升禽蛋精深加工能力,促进市场供需稳定;四是大力发展品牌鸡蛋,提升鸡蛋品质建设。

Affecting by the ＂H7 N9＂ flu epidemic and seasonal low consumption, egg price has been falling from 9.76 yuan per kilogram to 6.95 yuan per kilogram, a historical low record in recent ten years, from Sep.2016 to May 2017, decreased by 28.8 percent. At the same time, the breeding benefits kept decreasing, and gradually came to a state of loss, even got a new low record in recent five years, and the stock of layer was also decreasing. Start from June, the egg supply decreased rapidly under the influences of low stock of layer and hot weather, then it made the price rose over 40.5 percent in some main producing provinces within one month, and also made a record with growth rate of 30.3 percent in one week. Looking forward to the future, as the pre-filling chickens and young chickens coming into the laying period, the stock of laying hens will increase; as the impact of high temperature disappearing, egg market supply is expected to increase steadily; as the egg holiday consumption effect subsiding, the egg consumption in the fourth quarter will show a steady decline trend, and the egg price will enter the shock downstream channel, but the overall decline is limited; laying hens farming will continue to remain profitable, but the profit margins will become more and more narrow. Last but not least, we suggested that： improving the breeding risk prevention and control mechanism and decreasing the risk of laying hens industry;improving the early warning and monitoring mechanism and guiding the market decision-making;enhancing the deep processing capacity of eggs and promoting market supply and demand more stability;developing the brand of eggs vigorously and promoting the quality of eggs.