广东省农业保险大灾风险分散体系模拟研究

Simulation of Catastrophe Risks Dispersion Mode of Agricultural Insurance in Guangdong Province

在预计广东省农业保险发展规模以及农业保险不同程度大灾风险损失评估的基础上,创建广东省和国内农业保险经营规模最大的一家保险总公司的农业保险系统动力学耦合模型,通过对未来大灾风险的情景假设和动态模拟,展示广东省农业保险大灾准备金、可供投资者分配利润的变化趋势,以及保险总公司大灾准备金积累和需要外部超赔补偿资金的状况,以此考察广东省农业保险以及保险总公司应对大灾风险的能力,同时探讨地方政府在建立农业保险大灾风险分散机制中的职能定位,并提出建立中国农业保险以融资预案为主的大灾风险多级分散体系。

Based on the prediction of agricultural insurance development scale and the loss valuation of different degree catastrophe risk of agricultural insurance in Guangdong province, system dynamics coupling model of agricultural insurance for Guangdong province and controlling company of the largest agricultural insurance company in China was made. Through different catastrophe risk scenarios in future and dynamic simulation, the model not only showed the trend of agricultural insurance catastrophe reserves and allocable profit of investment in Guangdong, but also revealed accumulated catastrophe reserves and exceeding indemnity needed of agricultural insurance controlling company to evaluate the capacity of dealing with catastrophe risk in Guangdong and controlling company and the role of local government in mechanism of catastrophe risk dispersion management. Measures were proposed to form system of catastrophe risks dispersion in different layer characterized by financial arrangement for China＇s agricultural insurance.