新时期中俄贸易影响因素实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of the Factors behind Sino-Russian Trade in the New Era

2015年以来,中俄贸易出现明显的下滑,主要原因包括卢布大幅贬值、国际油价暴跌以及俄罗斯由于乌克兰危机所遭受的西方国家的经济制裁等。鉴于此,分析新时期的中俄贸易影响因素,探究改善中俄贸易的对策措施,对中俄贸易未来的发展具有重要意义。本文将中国对俄罗斯的出口贸易影响因素归纳为俄罗斯的人均GDP、俄罗斯的平均进口关税水平、卢布的实际购买力、中国对俄罗斯的直接投资和国际油价;而中国自俄罗斯的进口贸易影响因素归纳为中国的人均GDP、中国的平均进口关税水平、人民币的实际购买力、俄罗斯对中国的直接投资和国际油价。利用协整模型对这些影响因素与中俄19大类商品进出口额之间的关系进行实证分析,得出一些有针对性的对策建议。

Sino-Russian trade volume has been slumping since 2015 due to substantial depreciation of Ruble,steep fall in international oil prices,and the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West. With co-integration model, this paper conducts an empirical analysis of the correlation between the trade volume of 19 categories of goods and the factors behind them,i. e.,Russia and C hina's per capita incomes, average import tariffs, real purchase powers of the legal tenders,direct investments,international oil price,etc. Several countermeasures are proposed based on the analysis.