粤桂琼金融发展极化——扩散效应的实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Polarization and Diffusion Effects of Financial Development in Yue,Gui and Qiong Area

运用主成分分析法和城市流外向服务功能模型研究了粤桂琼金融发展的极化效应和扩散效应,结果显示广东的极化效应和扩散效应表现突出,是该区域金融发展的"增长极",粤桂琼金融发展极不平衡。基于VAR模型脉冲响应函数分别研究广东对广西、海南金融发展的影响,研究表明:广东对广西和海南分别产生了较强的极化效应;其次基于收敛理论的时间序列分析检测地区金融发展的收敛性,发现广东的金融极化效应大于扩散效应,粤桂琼金融发展是发散的,表现为以增长极的极化效应为主导的集聚阶段,是该区域金融经济协调发展的不利因素。

Adopting the principal component analysis and city flowing outward service function model, this paper analyzes the polarization and diffusion effect of financial development in Yue, Gui and Qiong area. The result shows that the polarization and diffusion effect is significant in Guangdong, playing a growth, role in this area, and the financial development is extremely uneven in this area. On the basis of the VAR model impulse function, it respectively studies the impact of Guangdong on financial development in Guangxi and Hainan, showing that Guangdong has the stronger polarization effects on Guangxi and Hainan. According to the time series analysis based the convergence theory, the detection of convergence of regional financial development discovers that the financial polarization effect is larger than the diffusion effect in Guangdong. And the financial performance in this area is divergent, featuring the concentration stage that is dominated by polarization effects of growth pole, which is not good to the coordinating development of finaneiali and economic development in this area.