基于CES效用函数的温度敏感负荷替代弹性计算

Calculation of Substitution Elasticity of Temperature-sensitive Load Based on CES Utility Function

提出了一种适用于温度敏感型负荷的电力需求弹性的计算方法。首先根据经济学中的效用理论确定3种"商品"即峰、平、谷时段用电量的总效用函数。在总效用函数的基础上,基于经济学中的消费者均衡条件,确定峰、平、谷电量需求模型;然后基于此模型,分析峰、平时段用电量的替代关系和谷、平电量的替代关系,进而确定峰、平时段替代弹性和谷、平时段替代弹性的计算方法;最后用算例验证该方法的有效性。该计算方法为基于电价的电力需求响应中温度敏感负荷的替代弹性计算提供了一种准确有效的方法,为负荷预测、用户节电潜力分析及多主体效益评估奠定了基础。

In this paper, a method for calculating the electricity demand elasticity of temperature-sensitive load is proposed. Firstly, according to the utility theory in economics, the total utility functions of three kinds of ＂commodity＂, i. e., the electricity consumption quantities in the peak, fiat and valley periods, are determined. On the basis of total utility function, the electricity demand models in the peak, flat and valley periods are determined based on the consumer equilibrium conditions in economics. Then, based on these models, the substitution relationship of electricity consumption quantity between peak and flat periods and that between valley and flat periods are analyzed, thus the calculation methods for the substitution elasticity between peak and flat periods and that between valley and flat periods are determined. Finally, a numerical example is used to verify the validity of the proposed method. This calculation method provides an accurate and effective method for the calculation of the substitution elasticity of temperature-sensitive load in the electricity demand response based on electricity price, which lays a foundation for the load forecasting, potential analysis for users＇ energy-saving and evaluation on the benefit of multi-agent.