保护少数意见的冲突型大群体应急决策方法

Conflict large-group emergency decision-making method while protecting minority opinions

应急决策结果关系重大,少数意见十分重要,解决冲突型应急决策问题的关键是在有限时间内,做出被大多数决策成员认可的相对可靠的决策结果,因此决策质量和时效性必须同时兼顾.本文试图建立基于保护少数意见的冲突型大群体应急决策模型,用于协调处理应急决策中可能存在的少数意见,以保证决策质量.利用客观修正系数对决策过程进行模拟,给出群体冲突水平阈值的定量选取方法.提出综合修正系数的思想,以应对成员不愿调整自身偏好的情形,保证决策时效性.构建了基于保护少数意见的偏好冲突消解模型,充分考虑少数意见,并对其进行合理处理.案例分析验证了所提方法的可行性;对比分析显示了所提方法处理冲突型大群体应急决策问题的优势;构造了足够数量的决策算例,模拟各种不同复杂程度、紧急程度下的决策过程,分析了所提方法的合理性和适用范围.

As emergency decision results are of great importance, minority opinions are also very important. The key to solve conflict emergency decision problems is to obtain the relatively reliable decision results, in a finite time, on which most decision makers agree. Both quality and timeliness must be taken into account in an emergency decision. This paper attempts to establish conflict large-group emergency decision-making model while protecting minority opinions, to deal with minority opinions that may exist and to ensure the decision quality. By applying objective adjustment coefficient to simulate the decision-making process, it can provide a quantitative method to select group conflict threshold. The concept of comprehensive adjustment coefficient is presented to deal with situations where some members are not willing to adjust their preferences and to ensure the timeliness of decision-making. This paper constructs a conflict resolution model which protects minority o- pinions, gives full consideration to minority opinions, and carries on reasonable treatments. Case analysis is presented to validate the feasibility of the proposed method. Comparative analysis shows the advantage of the proposed method in dealing with conflict large-group emergency decision-making problems. Through construc- ting a large enough number of examples, the decision processes are simulated with different complex degrees and urgency levels, and the rationality and applicable scope of the proposed method are discussed.