变电站工程造价指数与宏观经济关系研究

Fluctuation Relationships between Substation Project Cost Index and Macro-economic Index

基于2014-2016年某地区电网工程实际造价数据,采用拉氏指数和派氏指数计量方法对其变电站工程的综合造价指数、价格指数、物量指数进行了计算,反映变电站工程造价波动实际水平。利用HP滤波分析和谱分析方法,进一步研究变电站工程造价指数与宏观经济指标的相关性和周期特性。研究结果表明:变电站工程造价指数与居民消费价格指数波动周期较为同步,工业生产者出厂价格指数波动周期领先于变电站工程造价指数波动周期。这一研究结论可为企业加强电网工程造价管控、优化工程建设规划提供一定的决策参考。

Based on the actual project data from 2014 to 2016, Laspeyres and Paasche measurement methods were adopted to construct the comprehensive cost index, price in- dex, and quantity index to reflect the fluctuation feature. With the calculation re- sults, HP filtering analysis and spectral analysis were uased to explore the correla- tion and periodicity between the substation project cost index and macro-economic in- dexes. The results show that substation project cost index change synchronously with the consumer price index （CPI）, but producer price index （PPI） fluctuates earlier than the cost index. The relative conclusions can provide references for government and en- terprises to strengthen the cost management and optimize the project planning.