质押物价格波动的出口海陆仓融资优化

Optimization of exporting offshore/in-transit inventory financing with fluctuant collateral price

针对质押物价格波动下的出口海陆仓融资质押率优化问题,利用条件概率原理,分析获得了出口海陆仓融资各种情形的发生概率,通过考虑质押物在海陆全程的仓储费、海运费和贷款本息,构建了船公司(期望)利润分段函数模型,并运用解析法设计了最优质押率的求解步骤.算例验证了模型的适用性和有效性,结果表明:当贷款期初质押物市场价格较高时,船公司只需设定较低的质押率即可得到较高的期望利润;出口商违约概率和还贷时间均与最优质押率呈负相关关系.研究结论可为船公司制订融资优化决策提供科学的参考.

Aiming at the issue of loan-to-value ratios optimiza- tion on exporting offshore/in-transit inventory financing with fluctuant collateral price, the probabilities of occurrence for all kinds of circumstances in the exporting offshore/in-transit inventory financing were analyzed by using conditional probability theory. The profit segmentation function model of the shipping company＇ s （expected） profit was established by considering the storage fees, ocean freights and loan principal and interest of the whole journey. The optimal solution steps of loan-to-value ratio were designed by using the analytical method. Numerical example verifies the applicability and validity of the proposed model. Results show that when the market price of the collateral is high at the beginning of the loan period, the shipping company needs to set a lower loan-to-value ratio to obtain a higher expected profit. The exporter＇ s default probability and repayment time have a negative correlation with the optimal loan-to-value ratio respectively. The findings can provide a scientific reference for the shipping company in financing optimization decisions.