中国ODI与产业升级VEC模型的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of China's Overseas Direct Investment and Industrial Upgrading Under VEC Model

现阶段我国经济制造业去产能可以通过输出过剩产能实现,表现为ODI,这与产业结构调整密切相关。通过VEC模型对1995—2015年的数据进行实证分析,发现:产业结构高级化和工业结构升级在长期对我国ODI具有促进作用,其中工业结构升级作用更大;从短期看,产业结构高级化对ODI没有促进作用,工业结构升级对ODI具有促进作用。从格兰杰因果检测来看,15%显著性水平时,ODI与工业结构升级互为因果。基于实证结论,我国应进一步推进ODI,在产业结构调整中应当更多注重工业部门的结构升级。

At present,China' s manufacturing industry cuts excessive industrial capacity by output surplus capacity,manifested as overseas direct investment( ODI).This is closely related to the industrial restructuring.With the VEC model,an empirical analysis of the data from 1995 to 2015 shows that both the upgrading of the industrial structure and the upgrading of the manufacturing structure have positive effects on China's ODI in the long run with the latter being more effective.In the short term,the industrial structure upgrading has no effect on ODI,while the industrial structure upgrading promotes ODI.According to the Granger causality test,at a statistical significance level of 0.15,ODI and the manufacturing upgrading interact as both cause and effect.Based on the empirical conclusion,China should further promote ODI,and should pay more attention to the upgrading of the heavy industries.