通货膨胀持续性测度——基于时变通货膨胀均衡水平

Measuring Inflation Persistence Based on Time-varying Equilibrium Level of Inflation

通货膨胀持续性的测度依赖于通货膨胀均衡水平,在不变均衡水平下,通货膨胀持续性估计是有偏的。本文通过对1992年1月至2014年12月CPI数据研究发现,中国通货膨胀均衡水平呈现时变特征。在此基础上,重新对中国通货膨胀持续性进行估计。发现时变均衡水平下通货膨胀持续性水平显著低于不变均衡水平下的通货膨胀持续性。

Measuring inflation persistence is closely related to the equilibrium level of inflation, in constant equilibrium level,which will cause inflation persistence biased estimate. Through examining CPI inflation data from January 1992 to December2014 in China, and find that the equilibrium level of inflation is significant time-varying characteristics. Therefore, this paper re-estimate China＇s inflation persistence. The results show that inflation persistence under time-varying equilibrium level of inflation is significantly lower than constant equilibrium level of inflation.