特朗普政府的朝核政策调整及前景

The Policy Adjustment of the Trump Administration toward the DPRK Nuclear Issue and Its Prospect

随着近年朝核问题的发酵及朝鲜半岛局势不断升温,奥巴马政府时期实施的对朝核问题的"战略忍耐"政策走向终结。特朗普政府上台后,对朝核政策做出较大调整,在操作层面更具灵活性和时效性。特朗普政府把抑制朝鲜的核与导弹能力的发展列为最迫切和最主要的外交议程,对朝鲜实施"强制接触"政策。通过强化"实力"加大对朝鲜的接触,以极限施压和次级制裁行动的升级,迫使朝鲜主动与美国接触,尽量避免军事冲突的发生。为实现迫使朝鲜重回外交谈判渠道的目的,美国新的朝核政策加大了与中国协调合作的力度。从当前形势看,朝核问题的解决需要新的思路和办法,建立朝鲜半岛和平机制与实现半岛无核化可并行不悖。

With the DPRK nuclear issue fermenting and the situation in the Korean Peninsula intensifying in recent years, the policy of 'strategic patience' taken by the Obama administration toward the DPRK nuclear issue has come to an end. After coming to power, the Trump administration made a major adjustment of the US policy toward the DPRK nuclear issue, which is more flexible and timely on the operational level. The Trump administration has set restraining the development of the DPRK nuclear and missile capability as the most urgent and major task on its diplomatic agenda, pursuing a 'coercive engagement' policy toward the DPRK. The US has tried to force the DPRK to engage with the US proactively by strengthening its own 'power' as well as by putting extreme pressure and upgrading secondary sanctions on the DPRK so as to possibly avoid the outbreak of military conflict. In order to reach the goal of bringing the DPRK back again to the diplomatic negotiation table, the new US policy toward the DPRK nuclear issue has increased the momentum of coordinating with China. From the present situation, the resolution of the DPRK nuclear issue calls for new thinking and method, as the establishment of peace mechanism and the realization of the Korean Peninsula denuclearization do not go against one another.