社会水循环演变的经济驱动因素归因分析

Attribution analysis of economic driving factors of social water cycle evolution

本文利用水资源投入产出模型分析社会水循环演变的经济驱动因素。在水资源投入产出模型中,利用2008年经济普查数据进行了分行业用水量的推算,并开发出23个部门的水资源投入产出模型;改进了国内学者普遍使用的模型中,中间投入没有考虑进口产品对水资源投入影响的问题,另外在分析中考虑了经济发展方式转变对社会水资源通量演变的影响。最后得出,1992—2005年,节水型技术进步对社会水循环通量的增加贡献是1 037.39%,最终需求对社会水循环通量的贡献是-1 122.31%,中间投入技术进步贡献为-126.86%,需求结构变化贡献为190.97%,行业结构需求变化为120.81%。即在没有技术进步的情况下,最终需求的增加会使现在的社会水循环通量增加10倍以上。在1992的最终需求下,现有的节水技术进步使得社会水循环通量减少90%。

Based on water resource input-output model,this paper analyzes social economic driving factorsof the evolution of water cycle. In order to construct the water resource input output model,this paper us-es the economic census data of 2008 to calculate the water resources of the industry. In addition,the ef-fect of the product on water resource input is not considered in the model. Finally,during the peried of1992- 2005 years, the contribution of water saving technology progress to the social water cycle flux is1037.39%,the contribution of the final demand to the social water cycle flux is-1122.31%,the intermedi-ate input technology progress contribution is- 126.86%, the demand structure change contribution is190.97%,and the industry structure demand change is 120.81%. That is to say,in the absence of techno-logical progress,the increase in the final demand will make it more than 11 times the amount of social wa-ter cycle. At the end of 1992,the existing water saving technology progress makes the social water cycleflux decrease by 9/10.