农业机械化因素对粮食产量影响的实证分析——以河南省为例

Gray Correlation Analysis between the Agricultural Mechanization and the Grain Output——A case study of Henan province

选取粮食主产区和农机应用大省河南省作为研究对象,运用灰色关联方法分析了农业机械化的不同构成要素对主要粮食作物总产、单产的影响。研究表明:(1)农业机械化主要指标和粮食总产、粮食单产之间的灰色关联度都达到了较高水平,农业机械化和粮食产量关系密切;(2)在农业机械化的一级指标中,农业机械作业水平对于粮食产量的重要性较为突出;(3)农业机械化二级指标对粮食产量的影响不同。其中,实际机耕面积、农用灌溉机械的拥有量、小型拖拉机拥有量等因素对粮食产量的影响较大,农用机械总动力发挥的影响居中,其他指标的重要性程度相对较低;(4)不同粮食作物和农业机械化的关系不同,玉米、小麦和农业机械化的灰色关联度较大,稻谷、红薯、豆类和农业机械化的灰色关联度则相对较小。针对这些结论,文章最后给出了推进河南省农业机械化发展的相关建议。

Henan Province is not only the main grain producing area,but also a province that agricultural machinery is widely used,which makes it a typical and representative case to study the relationship between agricultural mechanization and the grain output.Taking Henan Province as an example,this paper analyzes the relationships between the different components of agricultural mechanization and the output of main grain crops by using grey correlation analysis method,and it showed that:(1)Grey correlation degrees between the total grain output or the grain output per hectare and the main indexes of agricultural mechanization have all reached a high level,which shows that relationship between the agricultural mechanization and the grain output is close;(2)Among the first class indexes of agricultural mechanization,the actual operation level of agricultural machinery plays a more important role in grain output;(3)The second class indexes of agricultural mechanization have different effects on grain output.Among them,the actual area of mechanical cultivated land,ownerships of agricultural irrigation machinery and small tractor have the greatest effect on the grain output,the total power of agricultural machinery has the moderate effect,and other indexes have the least effect;(4)Different crops have different correlation with the agricultural mechanization.It has a higher degree of correlation between the production of corn,wheat and the agricultural mechanization,but a lower degree between the production of rice,sweet potato,bean and the agricultural mechanization.Based on these conclusions,this paper gives some suggestions to promote the development of agricultural mechanization in Henan province.