东北三省旅游发展与经济增长、第三产业动态模型分析

Tourism Development and Economic Growth in the Northeast of China、the Third Industry Dynamic Analysis

构建了东北三省旅游总收入、第三产业总产值和国内生产总值之间的面板数据模型.经过对东北三省旅游发展与经济增长、第三产业1990-2014年25年的动态数据进行单位根检验、E-G协整检验以及Granger因果检验.研究结果表明:东北三省旅游业与经济增长、第三产业之间存在着平稳关系.但从时间的角度出发,三者之间不存在着长期的单向格兰杰因果关系;吉林省与黑龙江省旅游发展与经济增长存在一定的长期协整关系,辽宁省不满足,进而旅游发展与经济增长、第三产业三者之间在不同的背景下结论不同.

In this paper, the northeast three provinces tourism revenues and the tertiary industry output value and gross domestic product （GDP） between the panel data model are constructed. The results show that the relationship among the three northeastern provinces tourism, economic growth and tertiary industry is stable, but not one-way Granger causality. The tourism development and economic growth between Jilin and Heilongjiang province has certain long-term co-integration relationship. The different backgrounds bring different conclusions.