墒情诊断模型的理论分析、综合评价和展望

Theoretical analysis,comprehensive evaluation and prospect of soil moisture diagnostic models

本文基于专栏论文的全部研究结果,对墒情诊断模型进行了理论分析、综合评价和展望,目的是建立更实用的墒情诊断模型。研究结果如下:(1)87个墒情监测点的降水量数据可以用就近气象站的降水量代替;(2)分别就87个墒情监测点所建立的6个独立模型和1个综合模型(分时段诊断和逐日诊断2类)的诊断合格率都达到75%以上;(3)综合模型优于6个独立模型的单独使用;(4)所有模型和参数都是按监测点建立和确定的,不存在下垫面因素的影响;(5)所有模型简单、使用3个独立变量(前期土壤含水量、时段降水量之和和2次监测之间的天数)、参数容易获得,只要有系列性的土壤含水量监测数据和对应的降水量(监测点降水量或就近气象站降水量)数据就可建模。

Based on the results of researches in the feature column of this issue, this paper makes theoretical analysis, comprehensive evaluation and prospect of the moisture diagnosis mod- els, aiming to establish more practical moisture diagnosis models. The results are as follows ： （ 1 ） The precipitation data of 87 moisture monitoring sites could be replaced by the precipitation of their nearest meteorological stations; （2） The diagnostic qualified rates of the 6 independent models and the comprehensive model （two categories： the time interval diagnosis and the daily diagnosis） established by 87 moisture monitoring sites were all above 75%; （3） The integrated model was better than the independent models used alone; （4） All models and parameters were established and determined according to the monitoring sites, without the influence of the under- lying surface factors; （5） All models were simple, with three independent variables （initial soil moisture content, precipitation during period of monitoring, and the days between two monitoring dates）, and parameters easy to get. The models can be established as long as there is a series of soil moisture monitoring data and corresponding precipitation data （monitoring sites or nearby weather stations）.