基于整体—地区—产业分解的京津冀碳强度因素分析

The Decomposition Analysis for Carbon Intensity of Jing-Jin-Ji Based on Whole-Region-Industry

为探讨京津冀碳减排的重点,采用对数平均权重Divisia分解法分别构建京津冀整体、地区、产业碳强度的因素分解模型,并进行实证分析。结果表明:京、津、冀及整体的碳强度呈下降趋势;京津冀整体的碳强度变动受地区碳强度的影响较大;京、津、冀的碳强度受产业碳强度的影响较大;京、津、冀各产业碳强度受能耗强度的影响较大;进一步降低北京市碳强度的重点在于通过降低煤炭消耗比重,优化电力供给结构,降低第一产业碳强度;降低天津市碳强度的重点在于通过提高低碳能源利用效率降低第二产业碳强度;降低河北省碳强度的重点一方面在于推动现代服务业的发展,另一方面在于通过降低煤炭、焦炭消耗,促进能耗结构的多元化发展,降低第二产业碳强度。

To discuss the key point of carbon emission reduction in Jing -Jin -Ji, three decomposition models of carbon intensity are built, involving Jing - Jin - Ji, region, industry, with Logarithmic Mean Weight Divisia （ LMD ） method. Then, results of empirical analysis show that the carbon intensity of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Jing - Jin - Ji has a downward trend. And, the regional carbon intensity has a great influence on the carbon intensity of Jing- Jin -Ji. Additionally, the carbon intensity of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei are impacted greatly by the industrial carbon intensity. The carbon intensity of all industries is influenced strongly by energy intensity. Reducing the carbon intensity of the primary industry by reducing the proportion of coal consumption and optimizing the structure of power supply, is the key to reduce the carbon intensity of Beijing fatherly, while for Tianjin, it＇s to reduce the carbon intensity of the second industry by raising the efficiency of low carbon energy. However, for Hebei, on the one hand it boosts the development of modern service industry, on the other hand it reduces the carbon intensity of the second industry by cutting down the consumption of coal, coke, and promoting the diversified development of the energy consumption structure.