行业异质下全国性碳交易市场定价研究——基于非参数Meta-frontier DDF动态分析模型

Research on Pricing for Chinese Nationwide Carbon Trading Market under Industry Heterogeneity——Based on Nonparametric Meta-frontier DDF Dynamic Analysis Model

基于国家经济发展战略和减排政策目标,同时考虑到行业碳排放的异质性,建立了非参数共同前沿DDF动态分析模型;并以近三年的截面数据作为基期数据,分别在共同前沿和群组前沿下对首批纳入2017年全国性碳交易市场的39个细分行业的边际碳减排成本进行了测算,并对两种前沿下的计算结果进行了比较分析。结果显示:两种前沿下估测的减排成本有所不同,且差异程度与各行业的碳强度呈负相关;计算所得的加权平均边际减排成本分别为0.052和0.091万元/吨,存在显著差异。最后,基于对行业异质性的考虑,就碳价格和定价机制问题提出相关建议。

Based on the economic development strategy and mitigation policy objectives, a non -parametric meta -frontier DDF dynamic analysis model is established by taking the industry heterogeneity of carbon emissions into account. Based on the data of the latest three years, this paper estimates the marginal carbon abatement cost of 39 subdivided sectors covered in the nationwide carbon market in 2017 under the meta - and group - frontiers, respectively, and makes a comparative analysis between the two frontiers. The results indicate there exist a difference of marginal abatement cost between the two frontiers, and the difference is negatively correlated with carbon intensity. Additionally, the estimates of wighted average marginal abatement cost under the two frontiers are 520 and 910 Yuan/ton, respectively, which shows there is a significant difference. Finally, taking industry heterogeneity into consideration, several policy implications are provided for carbon price and its pricing mechanism.