加油站补货计划优化模型

The optimization model of replenishment plan for gas station

针对现有加油站自动补货计划模型无法满足加油站销量存在突增突减、油罐需保持较高的库存运行、需按油罐进行配送等实际业务需求的情况,采用带季节指数的指数平滑模型进行加油站油品销量预测,提升加油站销量预测准确性,采用改进的(t,s,S)补货策略进行加油站油罐库存控制,优化了加油站自动补货计划。结果表明:使用带季节指数的指数平滑模型,通过处理离群值和调节销量预测值进行加油站油品销量预测,使得预测的配送计划既满足了加油站的需要,又保证了加油站库存水平能满足业务要求;同时采用定期库存盘整条件下不定期定量改进的(t,s,S)补货策略进行加油站油罐库存控制,在保证加油站不断油的情况下,得到的补货计划可执行率更高。

In view of the existing gas station automatic replenishment plan model can not meet the actual business needs of gas stations such as sudden increase or decrease in sales,high inventory operation requirement of oil tank and automatic replenishment according to the tank et al.An optimized model that applying seasonal exponential smoothing method to forecast fuel sales and applying the improved（t,s,S）replenishment strategy as oil tank inventory controller has been introduced to improve the effectiveness of automatic replenishment plan for gas station.The results show that the use of exponential smoothing model with seasonal index,by processing the outliers and adjust sales forecast value of gas station oil sales forecast,make the prediction distribution plan is not only to meet the needs of the gas station,gas station and ensure inventory level can meet the requirement of the business.At the same time,using the improved regular inventory correction under regular quantitative the（t,s,S）replenishment of oil tank inventory control in gas station,gas station to ensure the continuous oil case,the replenishment plan can perform a higher rate.