广东省耕地资源数量与经济发展关系的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Relationship between Cultivated Land Quantity and Economic Development in Guangdong Province

基于1985~2015年的耕地面积与三次产业产值数据,采用协整分析、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等计量经济方法,研究了广东省耕地资源数量与经济发展之间的动态演进关系。结果表明:耕地资源数量与经济发展之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;不同产业发展对耕地资源数量影响的方向、程度各异,就广东省目前产业结构和发展水平而言,控制耕地数量会在一定程度上限制经济发展;第一、三产业的发展是以消耗耕地面积为代价的,而耕地面积减少对三次产业发展的影响均不显著。鉴于此,建议从产业集聚、产业结构、节地技术、闲置土地等方面采取积极措施,减少经济发展对耕地的依赖,提高土地利用质量,实现土地可持续利用和经济可持续发展。

Based on the statistical data of cultivated land area and three industrial output values during 1985～2015,the author studied the dynamic evolution relationship between cultivated land quantity and economic development of Guangdong provinceby several econometric methods such as co-integration analysis,impulse response function,and variance decomposition. The research results showed that：there existed a long-term and stable equilibrium relationship between cultivated land quantity and economic development;the development of three kinds of industries affected the cultivated land quantity in different directions and todifferent extents,and as far as the present industrial structure and developmental level in Guangdong province were concerned,controlling the quantity of cultivated land could limit the economic development in some degrees;the primary and tertiary industries developed at the price of exhausting cultivated land area,but the decrease in cultivated land area had no significant influences on the development of three kinds of industries. Therefore,in order to reduce the dependence of economic development oncultivated land,improve the quality of land use,and achieve the sustainable land use and economic development,we should tooksome positive measures from the aspects of industrial agglomeration,industrial structure,land-saving technique,idle land andso on.