社会保障如何影响农村居民消费?——基于协整与误差修正模型的实证检验

How Does Social Security Affect the Consumption of Rural Residents?——An Empirical Test Based on the Co-integration and Error Correction Model

经济新常态下,农村消费需求的提升对于转变经济增长动力、实现内需驱动型增长具有重要的战略意义。实际中我国的农村消费市场一直并未真正启动,其中社会保障制度是影响其消费行为的关键因素之一。本文就社会保障支出与农村居民消费之间的关系,在诠释社会保障支出对居民消费影响效应的基础上,运用协整和误差修正模型实证检验二者的具体关系。研究结果表明:我国农村社会保障支出对农村居民的消费支出具有一定的挤入效应,且长期影响相对较大。最后,依据结论提出了促进和完善我国农村社会保障制度健康发展的政策建议,以拉动内需,提升农村居民消费。

The increase of rural consumers' demand has great significance for shifting the momentum of economic growth and realizing the domestic demand-driven growth. The rural consumption market in China has not yet started,and one of the key factors affecting its consumer behavior is the social security system.On the basis of interpreting the effect of social security expenditure on residents' consumption,this paper uses co-integration and error correction model to test the relationship between social security expenditure and rural residents' consumption. The results show that the social security expenditure in the rural areas of China has a positive and long-term effect on the consumption of rural residents. Finally,the paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the healthy development of the social security system in rural areas of China,so as to stimulate the domestic demand and the consumption of rural residents.