1974—2014年抚仙湖流域土地利用/覆盖时空变化与驱动力分析

Spatio-temporal LUCC and driving force in Fuxian Lake watershed from 1974 to 2014

研究某一区域土地利用的时空变化,厘清其驱动机制,对整个地区的环境保护以及经济发展具有重要意义。以1974—2014年间共10期遥感影像为主要数据源,参考抚仙湖流域的第一次全国地理国情普查成果数据,利用监督分类和人工解译、地面实地验证相结合的方法提取抚仙湖流域土地利用与地表覆盖信息,得出近40 a来抚仙湖流域的地表覆盖类型变化的时空特征。最后基于抚仙湖流域的社会经济数据,采用主成分和多元回归分析方法,对抚仙湖流域土地利用/覆盖变化的驱动力进行分析。研究结果表明,抚仙湖流域在近40 a间,园地、房屋建筑(区)、道路、构筑物、人工堆掘地、荒漠与裸露地表面积明显增加,而耕地、林地、草地和水域面积则呈减少趋势;地表覆盖的年际变化差异明显,各土地利用类型转移差异显著,林地、草地与耕地转移比例较大,水域较小;流域土地利用变化主要受社会经济因子的影响。

Land use and land cover change（ LUCC） is one of the important aspects in global change research,and it plays a key role in the regional environmental protection and economy by carrying out the study of regional spatio-temporal LUCC. In order to analyze spatio-temporal LUCC in the Fuxian Lake watershed from 1974 to 2014,the authors took a total of 10 periods of remote sensing images as the main data sources,consulted the first national geographic conditions census data,and acquired the LUCC information by using supervised classification and artificial interpretation from remote sensing images. At last, the authors further revealed the driving force mechanism by analyzing regional spatio-temporal LUCC in the past 40 years in the Fuxian Lake watershed based on socioeconomic data by principal component analysis and linear regression analysis methods. Some conclusions have been reached： With the increasing of human social and economic activities,garden land,housing construction area,roads and structures,artificial pile digging,a desert with bare surface increased significantly,while the cultivated land,forest land,grassland and water showed a trend of decrease in the Fuxian Lake watershed in the past 40 years. The LUCC changed significantly from 1990 to 1996 and 1996 to 2006,while the change was insignificant from 1974 to1977. From the result of transition of LUCC types,it can be concluded that the transitional ratio of forest land,grassland and farmland were more than other types of land,while water had steady condition. The LUCC is mainly affected by social and economic factors.