基于变权综合层次分析法的尾矿库溃坝风险模型

Dam-Break Risk Assessment Model of Tailings Reservoir Based on Variable Weight Synthesis and Analytic Hierarchy Process

影响尾矿库溃坝的因素较多且相互作用、彼此耦合,因此尾矿库溃坝风险评价具有不确定性.根据尾矿库安全影响因素建立层次结构模型,构造各相应层次判断矩阵,应用层次分析法将定性分析与定量分析相结合,从而求得各因素的权重.将变权综合分析法引入到层次分析法中.构建均衡函数并通过均衡系数α来进一步优化各影响因素的权重取值.工程实例的应用表明该方法能得到较为合理的评价结果.同时分析了单一因素改变对评价结果的影响,综合分析变权评价与常权评价结果的差异,结果表明变权评价能更好地反映工程实际情况,特别是当指标参数差时,变权评价可以显著降低评分.

There are many interacting and coupling factors that affect the stability of tailings reservoir,so the dam-break risk assessment o f tailings reservoir is uncertain. The hierarchical structure model is established according to the factors affecting the safety o f tailings reservoir, analytic hierarchy process （AHP） judgment matrix is constructed,and the weights o f each factors is obtained using AHP to combine qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis. The variable weight synthesis theory is introduced to AHP. Constructing the balance function and using the balance coefficient a to optimize the weight o f each influence factor. The application o f the engineering example results shows that this method can get more reasonable evaluation results. At the same time,the impact of single factor change on the evaluation results is analyzed,and the differences between the variable weight evaluation and the constant weight evaluation are comprehensively analyzed. The results show that the variable weight evaluation can better reflect the actual situation of the project,especially when the index parameters are poor,the variable weight evaluation can significantly reduce the score.