我国客货流时空演化及其与经济发展的空间关联分析

Passenger and Cargo Flow Temporal and Spatial Evolution and Its Spatial Association with Economic Development in China

基于标准差椭圆和地理加权回归方法,对2000—2015年我国交通客货流时空演化特征及其与经济发展的空间关联性进行测度。结果表明:(1)受国际国内市场环境的影响,客货流标准差椭圆呈现明显的"东西往返"移动轨迹,核心区持续快速发展一段时间后出现疲软态势,转入中低速常态化发展模式,整体发展趋于均衡。(2)沿海和全国客货流标准差椭圆呈现相近的运动轨迹,呈现空间一体化发展格局。扩大内需、培育人们消费能力成为客货流发展的关键。(3)客货流与经济发展的空间关联呈现明显的空间差异,经济基础发展相对较好的城市凭借周边地区的依附作用,关联度相对较高,而发展相对有限的城市则相反。

The paper uses standard deviation and Geographically weighted regression method to research the spatial and temporal evolution of China's passengers and goods flow and its spatial autocorrelation with China's economic from 2000 to 2015. The results show that:( 1) Influenced by the international and domestic market environment,passenger and freight flow standard deviation ellipse present obvious "back and forth between west and east"movement trajectory,core area rapid development continued for some time then turn to a weak trend,transferred to the slow development of normal mode,overall development tends to be balanced.( 2) The standard deviation ellipse of passenger and cargo flow of coastal and inland have similar trajectories,presents the integration of the spatial development pattern. At present,the expansion of domestic demand,cultivate people's consumption capacity has become a key factor for the development of passenger and cargo flow of coastal and inland.( 3) The spatial correlation between passengers and cargo flow and GDP present obvious spatial difference,the cities which have a relatively good economic base have a relatively high degree of spatial correlation with the dependence of the surrounding areas,but the relatively limited development of the city is opposite.