基于系统动力学的旧城更新改造模式分配方案研究——以广州市为例

Distribution Scheme of Urban Renewal and Reconstruction Modes Based on System Dynamics: A Case of Guangzhou City

遵循可持续发展理论和新型城镇化建设要求,以实现旧城更新中的经济、社会和环境综合效益最优为导向,利用系统动力学方法,建立旧城更新改造模式分配方案系统模型。以广州市旧城区为研究对象,情景模拟不同改造模式分配方案对城市经济、社会和环境效益的影响,从而确定旧城区域改造模式的合理分配方案。结果表明:研究区旧城更新改造模式合理分配方案以"退二进三"模式比例最高,为40%;基础改善模式和以旧换新模式比例相同,均为30%。各模式之间差距较小,该分配方案较为均衡合理,既可以保证通过加大第三产业投入实现经济的快速发展,同时也可以提升文化软实力和环境质量,有效实现区域的可持续发展。

Firstly,according to the sustainable development theory and new urbanization construction requirements,in order to guide the optimal comprehensive benefit with economic,social and environmental benefits,the urban renewal and reconstruction modes preferred model are established with the aid of system dynamics methods.Secondly,the study takes the old city in Guangzhou as an example,analyzes the effects of economic,social and environmental benefits of different distribution scheme,and then determines the reasonable distribution scheme of urban renewal and reconstruction mode for the old city area. The results show that: "suppressing the secondary industry and developing the tertiary industry"has the highest proportion of 40%; infrastructure improvements and replacing the old with the new in the same proportion which are both 30%. The distribution scheme is more balanced and reasonable. It can be ensured through increased investment in the tertiary industry to achieve rapid economic development,and to improve the cultural soft power and environmental quality.